CO2 Emission, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Tourism for Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegration Test with a Structural Break
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In this study, two different models were employed by using the data for the period of 1963-2011 in Turkey. In the first model, the effect of CO2 emission, economic growth, and international tourism on energy consumption was investigated in Turkey. In the second model, the effect of energy consumption, economic growth, and international tourism on CO2 emission was studied. For this purpose, the stationarity of the series was analyzed by using traditional unit root tests (ADF and PP unit root tests) and unit root tests with structural breaks (Zivot and Andrews (1992), Lumsdaine and Papell (1997), Lee and
Strazicich (2003, 2004) and Kapetanios(2005)). Since the series contained unit root at the level and were stationary at the first difference, the process continued with cointegration analysis. The results of the cointegration test developed by Maki (2012), which allows for 5 breaks, showed the presence of a cointegration relationship in both analyses. In the last section of the study, cointegration coefficient estimator DOLS was used. The findings show that an increase in international tourist arrivals decreases energy consumption and CO2 emission. For this reason, it is necessary for policymakers to develop policies that focus
on tourism to decrease environmental pollution.
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