Analysis of the Effect of Economic Growth in the Anhui Free Trade Zone of China-Based on the Synthetic Control Method
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Based on panel data from January 2017 to November 2021, the article uses the year-on-year growth of industrial value-added as an indicator of economic growth and uses the synthetic control method to analyze the economic growth effects of the Anhui FTA and whether the Hefei Area can drive the economic growth of prefecture-level cities within Anhui Province. In exploring the impact of the FTZ on the economies of prefecture-level cities, the economic gravity model and the radiation theory are applied to study the prefecture-level cities that are only affected by the Hefei Area. The results show that the establishment of the Anhui FTZ could promote the economic growth of Anhui. However, this promotion is not sustainable, and there is no significant promotion impact on the year-on-year growth of import and export volume. The Hefei zone can drive the level of economic development of prefecture-level cities, but this boost is short-lived. Therefore, we should pay more attention to finding the root cause of the positive effect of the FTZ in the long term. In particular, the article is based on Lasso regression synthesis for robustness testing.
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