Investigating Total Production and Harvested Area of Paddy in Indonesia Using Grey Forecasting Methodology
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The advancement of technology contributed the improvement of Paddy plantation in Indonesia, and it shows increased significantly year by year and irregular cycles which bring suitable data series to accurate forecasting. This paper proposes a GM (1,1) forecasting method with time-series data to predict total production and harvested area of paddy in Indonesia. After collection the real data about the total production and harvested area of paddy in Indonesia from 1996 to 2015, the result show the significant error from the real data and the forecasting result have a positive correlation found between the real data and the forecasting outcome from Grey forecasting method. This correlation related to previous research and study about Grey forecasting stated that with the Grey forecasting method suitable for short-term and long-term prediction.
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