Keywords:-

Keywords: Unit root, cointegration, VECM, OLS, crowding out, Bangladesh

Article Content:-

Abstract

This work tries to analyze the effect of external public debt on the economy of Bangladesh with the help of crowding out effect. The data set used for this purpose ranged from 1982-2016. For the case of crowding out effect, there are two popular views, the classical view and the Keynesian view. The finding of this work shows existence of the crowding out effect for the case of external public debt for Bangladesh. This is a time series work. Firstly the unit root property of the variables are checked followed by determining appropriate lag and Johansen cointegration test. Based on cointegration test results, VECM has been used.

References:-

References

Atique, R., and K. Malik (2012), Impact of Domestic and External Debt on the Economic Growth of Pakistan, World Applied Sciences, Vol.20, No.1, pp. 120-129.

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh, various years.

Farhana, P. and M.N.M. Chowdhury (2014), Impact of Foreign Debt on Growth in Bangladesh: An Econometrics Analysis, International Journal of Developing and Emerging Economics, Vol. 2 No. 4, pp. 1-24.

Fatai, O.O. (2016), “Causal Nexus between External Debt and Economic Growth: The Nigerian Case, International Journal of Management and Commerce Innovations, Vol. 4, No. 1 pp. 92-98.

Granger, C. W. J. and P. Newbold (1974), Spurious regressions in econometrics, Journal of Econometrics,Vol.2, pp.111- 120.

Hasan, M.A. and T. Akhter (2012), Public Debt Burden and Economic Growth of Bangladesh: A VAR Approach, SSRN Electronic Journal, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255725380

Jelinga, M.T., H. Xu and I.G. Dacka (2016), The Impact of External Debt and Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Tanzania, International Journal of Financial Research, Vol.7, No.2. pp. 154-162.

Johansen, S. (1988), Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control”, Vol. 13, pp. 231-254.

Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.52, pp.169-210.

Kasidi, F. and M. Said(2012), Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Tanzania, Advances Management and Applied Economics, Vol.3, No. 4, pp59-82.

Khan, R.E.A. and A.R.Gill (2009), Crowding Out Effect of Public Borrowing: A Case Study of Pakistan, Munich Personal RePEc Archinve, Paper No. 16292, Vo. 09:41.

Majumder, M. A. (2007), Does Public Borrowing Crowd-out Private Investment: The Bangladesh Evidence, Working Paper Series: WP 0708, Policy Analysis Unit, Research Development, Bangladesh Bank.

Ministry of Finance, Bangladesh Economic Review, various years.

Ministry of Finance (2017), Budget at a Glance, Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka

[15] Shah, M.H. and S. Pervin (2012), External Public Debt and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh, 1974 to 2010, Academic Research International, Vol.3 No.2, pp.508-515.

World Development Indicators (WDI),

http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators

World Economic Outlook (WEO),

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/ weodata/ index.aspx

Downloads

Citation Tools

How to Cite
Tariq, N. (2019). External Public Debt and Crowding Out Effect: A Time Series Analysis for Bangladesh. International Journal Of Management And Economics Invention, 5(01), 2003-2008. https://doi.org/10.31142/ijmei/v5i1.02