Investigating Total Production and Harvested Area of Paddy in Indonesia Using Grey Forecasting Methodology

Muhammad Ghalih1, Maria Yulita Krisnawaty2, Putri Dewi Purnama3, Muhammad Hafiz4, Iza Guspian5

 DOI : https://dx.doi.org/10.31142/ijmei/v4i5.06

Author's Affiliations

1Department of International Business, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Taiwan

2Department of Accounting, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Taiwan

3Department of Wealth and Taxation Management, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Taiwan

4Department of Electronic Engineering, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Taiwan

5Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Taiwan

 

ABSTRACT

The advancement of technology contributed the improvement of Paddy plantation in Indonesia, and it shows increased significantly year by year and irregular cycles which bring suitable data series to accurate forecasting. This paper proposes a GM (1,1) forecasting method with time-series data to predict total production and harvested area of paddy in Indonesia. After collection the real data about the total production and harvested area of paddy in Indonesia from 1996 to 2015, the result show the significant error from the real data and the forecasting result have a positive correlation found between the real data and the forecasting outcome from Grey forecasting method. This correlation related to previous research and study about Grey forecasting stated that with the Grey forecasting method suitable for short-term and long-term prediction.